Geneva. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth for 2026 to 1.8 per cent. Earlier, the rate was expected to be 2.5 percent. The WTO pointed to the US customs duty hike policy as the main reason for this decline.

According to the latest trade forecast released by the WTO on Friday, recent tariff changes are expected to weaken the overall state of global trade. The “reciprocal tariffs” imposed by the US on August 7 will not only reduce US imports, but will also have a serious impact on exports to partner countries.

The impact is expected to intensify from the second half of 2025 to 2026. In the same context, the WTO has revised the trade growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9 percent. Earlier in April, the rate was expected to be 0.2 percent.

However, the current estimate has also been made in the case of not increasing the customs duty. The WTO has clarified that it is much lower than the growth rate of 7 percent. This is partly due to frontloading from the US.

According to the sectoral analysis, Asian countries will be the main positive drivers of global trade growth in the coming year, while the North American region is expected to have a negative impact in both 2025 and 2026.

“Customs uncertainty is causing deep pressure on business confidence, investment and supply chains,” WTO Director-General Ngosi Okonjo-Iwela warned of the “serious implications” of the uncertainty in customs policy. This uncertainty is proving to be very disruptive for the global business environment. ’