Kathmandu. China has started the year with significant trade growth despite weak domestic demand. China’s total trade grew by nearly 20 percent in the first two months of 2026, according to official figures. However, exports to the U.S. have declined, offset by growth in other major markets.

Data from the General Administration of Customs released on Tuesday showed that China’s exports rose 21.8 percent in the January-February period. That’s well above economists’ forecast of 7.2 percent. This increase in exports has been an important support for the world’s second-largest economy at a time when domestic consumer activity is slowing. This has further expanded China’s record trade surplus achieved last year.

Trade data for the first two months is generally released jointly by incorporating the volatility caused by the Lunar New Year holiday. This year’s data suggests that China’s economy started 2026 strongly, even before the start of war in the Middle East.

Xichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, said that China’s exports are likely to remain strong for some time due to recent reduction in US tariffs and high demand for semiconductors.

However, China’s major trading partners have expressed concern over its growing trade surplus. Chinese manufacturers are putting pressure on local industries to reduce their trade imbalances.

Customs data showed that China’s exports of products such as automobiles, textiles and home appliances rose significantly in the past two months. The data comes as China’s top leaders attend two sessions of annual political meetings. Last week, the government announced its lowest economic growth target in decades.

One of the major challenges to China’s economy is a long-standing slowdown in domestic spending. Even after the end of the pandemic, consumer spending has not been able to recover as expected. However, there has been some improvement in imports. According to the latest data, China’s imports in January-February were 19.5 per cent. It has increased by 8 percent. That’s well above the seven percent estimated by a Bloomberg survey.

Last month, consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in three years. On the other hand, Chinese exports to the US fell by 11 percent. The decline comes as US President Donald Trump ramps up his tax campaign.

Last year, Beijing and Washington escalated into a trade war that imposed reciprocal tariffs of up to triple digits on some goods. However, with Trump set to visit China later this month, tensions between the two countries are expected to ease.

According to the data, China’s exports to the United States reached $ 67.24 billion in the January-February period. It was $75.56 billion in the same period of the previous year.

Exports to the European Union (EU) increased by 27.8 percent and to ASEAN countries by 29.2 percent in the same period. The evolving situation in the Middle East is also likely to affect China’s energy imports. Huang, an economist, said the conflict could boost China’s oil import bill, but could not have a major impact on import volumes.

Oil prices have reached their highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 due to the war waged by the US and Israel against Iran. This has raised concerns about the global economy. The conflict has nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil.

China, the world’s biggest crude importer, increased its oil imports by 16% in January-February, customs data showed. Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said strong export growth would bolster the arguments of trading partners worried about China’s growing trade imbalance.

China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao also acknowledged the need to balance the country’s trade at a press conference on the sidelines of a two-session political meeting in Beijing on Friday. According to him, export and import are like two wheels of a vehicle. “If these two are balanced, the vehicle can move smoothly,” he said.

Zhang said the strong export performance and the government’s relatively low economic growth target indicate that China is unlikely to impose a major economic stimulus program in the near future.