Prolonged Middle East tensions could affect 41 per cent of remittances, says NRB

रोजगारी व्यवस्थापन मुख्य चुनौती

२१ फाल्गुन २०८२, बिहीबार ०७:१३March 5, 2026

. The prolongation of tensions in the Middle East will affect 41 percent of the total remittances coming into Nepal.

Out of the total remittances coming to Nepal, 41 percent come from 15 countries in the Middle East.TAG_OPEN_div_62 Due to this, if this tension is prolonged, a large part of the remittances coming to Nepal will be affected.

} Remittances sent by Nepali workers going abroad have become the main basis of Nepal’s economy. The remittance inflow has been steadily increasing in recent years, which has significantly contributed to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). According to Nepal Rastra Bank, remittances account for around 25 to 27 percent of Nepal’s GDP. From this perspective, it is clear that the role of remittances in Nepal’s economy is very important.

Although the inflow of remittances has increased significantly in the first six months of the current fiscal year 2082/83, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to have a direct impact on the share of remittances, said Ram Shar TAG_OPEN_div_58 an Kharel, executive director of the Economic Research Department of the Nepal Rastra Bank.

} A large number of remittances have been coming especially from about 15 countries in the Gulf and Middle East. He said that the instability seen in the Middle East due to the US-Israel-Iran war could put pressure on Nepal’s external sector, foreign exchange reserves and overall economy. According to Nepal Rastra Bank, the remittance inflow in the first six months of the current fiscal stood at Rs 1062.93 billion.

{{TAG_OPEN_div_54} The current war in the Middle East has increased uncertainty in the countries where Nepali workers work. In particular, Iran is reacting against the US by targeting various countries. This has also increased the security risk in the Gulf region and surrounding countries. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman are some of the major destinations for Nepali workers. It is only from these countries that a large amount of remittances come in.

Kharel says that if there is a situation of long-term instability, war or labor expulsion in these countries, then 41 percent of the population could be directly affected.TAG_OPEN_div_52 This could put pressure on the current account, depleted foreign exchange reserves and make it difficult to sustain imports, he said.

Based on the imports up to Poush of the current fiscal year 2082/83, the foreign exchange reserve with the banking sector is sufficient to sustain the import of goods for 21.4 months and goods and services for 18.1 months.TAG_OPEN_div_50 “If this war is not prolonged, if it is suspended, it will not affect Nepal very much. Kharel says, “Nepal’s foreign exchange reserves will be affected only if the agitation is prolonged.” ’

TAG_OPEN_strong_32 Nepal Rastra Bank does not have the exact data of remittances by country

Kharel asked the number of Nepali workers working in the Middle East and how much remittance is coming from these countries? He said that the NRB does not have detailed data according to the country. “Of the total remittances in Nepal, 35 to 36 percent come from only four countries. However, the NRB does not have data on the exact number of remittances coming from which country. ’

He said that 35-TAG_OPEN_div_45 36 percent of the total remittance will come from four countries including Saudi Arabia and Qatar. He said that the Nepal Rastra Bank does not have accurate data on the amount of remittances coming from which country and the reason is that different countries send remittances to Nepal using banks of different countries.

} Some Nepali workers working in the UAE for example used the American bank while sending money from the UAE and if they send money from the American bank, they show that the remittance has come to Nepal from the transaction of the head office of that bank. The money comes from the UAE. However, data from the US bank shows. ” says Kharel. “Someone who used a Hong Kong bank to send money from both of them seems to have come from Hong Kong. ’

For this reason, the Nepal Rastra Bank does not have exact data.TAG_OPEN_div_41 “We have the data of the total remittance, but we do not have a detailed classification of how much money came from which country,” said Kharel. The prolongation of tensions in the Middle East will make it more challenging to assess which countries are at great risk in remittances.

Job Management Main Challenge

Experts say that employment management in Nepal could be a big challenge if Nepali workers working in the Middle East have to return home due to the war.TAG_OPEN_div_37 Foreign employment has become the mainstay of Nepal’s economy. If a large number of workers return home, the pressure on the labor market will increase.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a large number of Nepalis have gone to various countries of the Middle East for employment at present.TAG_OPEN_div_35 According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, around 7 lakh Nepalis are employed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Similarly, 384,865 Nepalis are working in Saudi Arabia, 357,913 in Qatar, 175,000 in Kuwait, 30,000 in Iraq, 28,000 in Bahrain and 25,000 in Oman.

According to the data, 17 TAG_OPEN_div_33,000 Nepalis have gone to Cyprus, 6,500 to Israel, 1,500 to Lebanon, 500 to Egypt and 6 to Iran. According to experts, it could be a challenge for the government to create employment opportunities within Nepal if the workers have to return home.