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Idea: An Imbalanced Cycle of Income, Interest and Expenditure

उद्धव सिलवाल

The biggest structural irony is in our existing financial structure. The cost of a loan has an inverse relationship with its economic status. That is, a person who is financially poor and under-resourced is compelled to take a loan at a high interest rate.

Such people cannot even reach the doors of the bank. But for those with high incomes, the doors of the bank are always open with cheap interest rates. And the class who have to spend their evening and morning meal is in a situation where they are not able to get a loan without getting trapped in the quagmire of meter interest. That is why the poor class has to spend more money on interest than expected.

If you look at the loan market, it looks very inclusive and multi-layered. But if you get to the bottom of it, it is dividing the citizens on the basis of class. The credit market is operating on the basis of financial access, availability of collateral and the complexity of the paperwork. Poor citizens who do not have land to mortgage and cannot afford formal documents are dependent on moneylenders. In the informal sector, 50 percent or more is charged as interest annually. Such loans taken for daily subsistence, treatment or going to foreign employment are pushing the low-income class into a cycle of lifelong slavery.

Co-operatives are attracted to the upper class of co-operatives rather than the class who take loans from the moneylenders. Cooperatives are preferred by those who have a small amount of access and are known locally. Where the interest rate is usually around 12 to 20 percent. However, the cooperative sector has also not been able to become safe and accessible to the poor due to the mischief of the operators and weak regulation.

A little more affluent class than this level do business in microfinance institutions. The Rastra Bank has set a maximum interest rate limit of 15 percent for microfinance. Microfinance opened targeting the poor, women and small entrepreneurs has contributed to financial inclusion to some extent.

The cheapest level of credit flow is the formal banking system. Only the middle and upper class people who have documents, official sources of income and adequate collateral have access to commercial banks, development banks and finance companies. According to the policy of the Rastra Bank, the banks provide loans at a comparatively cheaper rate by adding a certain percentage to the base rate. This shows that those who have mortgages and access get cheap loans, while those who have mortgages and access are compelled to bear the burden of expensive loans.

The one who has a good income has the lowest interest rate and spends accordingly. The process of paying the highest interest rate to those who have the lowest income is creating a cycle of poverty, not prosperity. An even more serious social and economic distortion arises when the cheap loans from the formal system misuse it.

The well-to-do class who have easy access to the banking system, who like to call themselves elite, withdraw money from the bank at a cheap interest rate and invest the same money in the informal market at high interest. The monopoly of a particular class on cheap capital and the financial exploitation of the poor on the basis of it has deepened and widened the gap of economic inequality in the society.

The co-operative sector has also not been able to be safe and accessible to the poor due to the bullying and weak regulation of the operators

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We have a population of about 30 million, but ironically, more than double the number of bank accounts has been opened. According to the Banking and Financial Statistics released by the Central Bank, there are 53 million bank accounts in 53 financial institutions including 20 commercial banks, 17 development banks and 16 finance companies as of mid-July 2082/83.

However, the number of loan accounts in commercial banks is 1.7 million, development banks are 2.61 lakh and finance companies are 68,000, according to the report. This shows that only a small fraction are availing of formal banking loans. The data confirms that a large proportion of the rest of the population is either out of the credit net or are forced to get wrapped up in expensive informal loans.TAG_OPEN_div_65

According to the data released by the central bank, the total deposits in banks and financial institutions are currently around Rs 82.80 trillion while credit flow is limited to Rs 5.947 trillion. The weighted average interest rate of commercial banks is in the range of 3.51 to 3.57 percent. The weighted interest rate of loans is around 7 to 7.12 percent. The interest rate on one-year fixed deposits has come down to below four percent.TAG_OPEN_div_63

This shows that the flow of credit from the banking sector to the private sector is weak. As a result, both consumption and investment have weakened. It has been declining for the last three years. This means that there is both stagnation and inflation in the economy.

Behind this expensive cycle of debt is low income. The root of low income is the lack of quality skills. According to the Fourth Living Standard Survey 2079/80 published by the National Statistics Office, 64.9 percent of Nepal’s workers are employed in daily wages or in the informal sector. This shows that Nepal’s labor force does not have stable employment. There is no guarantee of income for such classes.TAG_OPEN_div_59

TAG_OPEN_div_57 There is confusion whether they will get work today or tomorrow. If the health of such a group deteriorates, the income will not be sustainable. Such a class does not have modern or technical skills that can get high prices in the market. For this reason, there is no other option but to work for minimum wages as unskilled workers. When even the basic needs of the workers cannot be fulfilled with daily wages. Then there is no other option but to take a loan when there is even a slight health problem in the family, the cost of children’s education is increased, or when the festival comes.

Due to the high interest rate of such loans, the burden of additional expenses increases on such classes. Such groups do not even have a bank collateral. Therefore, it has become a compulsion to reach the meter interest in such a class. Due to these reasons, the low income, especially the high interest rate of the loan, and the class who are unable to increase the income due to lack of skills, have been affected the most by the imbalance of income and expenditure.

The class who struggle to get food in the evening and morning has reached a situation where they are not able to get loans without getting stuck in the quagmire of meter interest. This is the reason why the poor class has to spend more money on interest than expected{

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Now there is a politically strong government. The situation of forming such a government is less in the future. Politically, such a government was not there before and it is unlikely that there will be such a government in the future. In view of this situation, far-reaching and structural reforms are needed to break the imbalanced cycle of income and interest. For this, the formal banking system should be transformed into a project-oriented credit system without relying on collateral.

} The work of bringing the informal credit market under the legal ambit of law, tightening the meter charge and providing financial literacy and easy access to finance in the villages should be accelerated. To make 64.9 percent of the unskilled workers skilled, technical and vocational training should be included at the national level. The increase in the skill of the workers means an increase in market value and income.

Unless the majority of the wage earners and poor citizens of the country can be connected with cheap capital and skills. Until then, the plan of prosperity will not be implemented and will remain on paper. Therefore, if we can solve the reverse cycle of the credit market and create an environment for easy flow of credit to those groups who do not have any collateral assets, then the imbalanced cycle of income, interest and expenditure can be different.

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